CPI Week: JPMorgan, Goldman Earnings and What to Watch

Disclosure: I am not a registered financial advisor. This is educational content on market news, the economic calendar, and historical trade reviews. Trading involves risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing herein is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Assume I have positions in tickers discussed. Do not make financial decisions based solely on this content. Trade your own decisions.

Last week was a record-setting week for the S&P 500 that ended with a rotation under the surface. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,811.54, up 1.2% on the week, after a record close of 7,818.93 on Tuesday. The Dow added 0.9% to 51,654.95 and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.6% to 27,366.17, its fourth straight weekly gain. This week the market news shifts to the September CPI report on Wednesday and the start of Q3 bank earnings on Tuesday. Here is the market news recap and the economic calendar for the week ahead.

Correction: last week's preview listed the big bank earnings for Thursday, October 9. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup report this Tuesday, October 13.

The week opened with ISM Services for September at 54.9 on Monday, against 55.0 expected and 55.4 the month before. The prices paid component rose to 74.0 from 72.6, which kept the inflation conversation alive. The S&P 500 rose Monday and set a record close Tuesday, led by utilities, while the 10-year Treasury yield eased about 4 basis points on the day.

The FOMC minutes from the September 15-16 meeting were released Wednesday. They described persistent inflation, and most participants saw another rate increase by year end as likely appropriate. The Fed raised the target range to 3.75%-4.00% in September, a move we covered in the September 21 week preview. Stocks slipped Wednesday as the 10-year auction cleared at 5.300%, and the 10-year yield traded above 5.3% at points during the week. The minutes were the main event in last week's preview.

Thursday was the week's hard reversal. A Financial Times report put OpenAI's annualized revenue near $50 billion, well below the roughly $70 billion figure some investors had been using. The Nasdaq-100 fell 1.4% and the PHLX Semiconductor index fell 3.4% on the day, ending the week down about 4.3%. Brent crude rose more than 4% Thursday on Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks and a Gulf of Mexico hurricane that shut in about 500,000 barrels a day.

Friday brought a rebound. The S&P 500 gained 0.6%, and the Magnificent Seven ETF recovered about 1% after Thursday's drop. T-Mobile, AT&T, and Verizon each fell roughly 9% for the week after SpaceX agreed to acquire a nationwide low-band spectrum portfolio, while tower operators American Tower, Crown Castle, and SBA Communications rose sharply. Humana rose about 12% on improved 2027 Medicare Advantage star ratings. Delta Air Lines reported adjusted EPS of $1.72 and adjusted revenue of $17.6 billion, and said fuel costs came in more than $500 million above its July guidance.

Under the surface, nine of 11 sectors finished higher. Consumer staples, utilities, and energy each gained between roughly 3.6% and 4%, while technology fell about 0.3% to 0.5% and industrials fell about 0.4%. The equal-weight S&P 500 gained 1.6% and ended a streak of seven straight weekly declines. The Russell 2000 fell 0.9%. The 10-year yield ended the week at about 5.24%, WTI crude settled near $91.85, Brent near $104.72, and gold near $4,221.

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The next FOMC decision is October 28. After the minutes, one market-implied snapshot put the odds of an October hike near 19% and at least one more quarter-point hike by December near 84%. Several Fed officials speak this week, including Waller, Barkin, Collins, Bowman, and Hammack.

Disclosure: I am not a registered financial advisor. This is educational content on market news, the economic calendar, and historical trade reviews. Trading involves risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing herein is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Assume I have positions in tickers discussed. Do not make financial decisions based solely on this content. Trade your own decisions.

Last week the market made a record high and then sold the AI complex hard in a single session. This week brings two catalysts that can move rates and the financial sector, and I am organizing my watch around both. Everything below is a framework for reading the news, not a prediction.

The Fed hiked in September and the minutes say most officials expect another increase by year end. That makes September CPI the most important data point before the October 28 meeting. The headline is expected to jump on gasoline, which was up more than 27% year-over-year in August. The core reading is the one I am watching. Core was expected at 0.2% month-over-month. Last week's ISM prices paid reading of 74.0 is a reminder that input costs are still elevated, and airfares were flagged as an upside risk to core. A core reading that matches forecasts keeps the current pricing intact. A core reading above forecast is the scenario that has historically pressured long-duration equities when the 10-year yield sits above 5%, and a softer core is the scenario where yields have historically eased. Both are possible outcomes, and I treat neither as a forecast.

JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup all report before the open Tuesday. The three items I am watching in each report are net interest income, credit provisions, and trading and investment banking revenue. Higher yields have lifted net interest margins for many banks, but a September payroll gain of only 29,000 and a slowing housing market are the reasons provisions and consumer credit commentary matter. Financials gained about 2.3% last week, so expectations were already moving higher into the prints. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock follow Wednesday.

The PHLX Semiconductor index fell about 4.3% on the week, with Arm down about 13%, Intel about 12%, CoreWeave about 8%, and Lam Research about 8%. The trigger was a revenue figure for one company, which says a lot about how crowded positioning had become. This week gives two reads on the AI capital spending cycle: TSMC reports Thursday before the open (its September revenue was NT$511.86 billion, up 54.6% year-over-year), and ASML reports Wednesday with order intake as the headline item. I am watching whether semiconductors stabilize or whether Thursday's drop extends. For earlier AI and chip coverage, see the August 31 review and preview.

Brent finished near $104.72 and the Strait of Hormuz has been largely closed since late February. A Saudi pipeline restart, tanker attacks, and hurricane shut-ins have all moved crude within the past month. Energy was one of the top three sectors last week, and utilities and staples led as investors rotated toward defensive groups. The 10-year yield at about 5.24% is the variable tying CPI, oil, and tech valuations together, and Monday's bond market closure means the first full Treasury session this week is Tuesday. The September 28 preview has the PCE and jobs context behind that move.

Live discussion of CPI, bank earnings, and the semiconductor names is in the Discord community Tuesday and Wednesday. Ideas shared there are for discussion only, and no financial decisions should be made based solely on them.

Disclosure: I am not a registered financial advisor. This is educational content only. Trading involves risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing herein is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do not make financial decisions based solely on this content. Trade your own decisions.